Trade Recommendations for Fri. Mar. 12th

Hello All,
 
I'm glad we didn't place any trades today as their wasn't much going on, we would have been sitting ducks.  The markets were little changed with a stable dollar after government reports showed that the trade deficit narrowed, indicating a slowing economic recovery.  We've been covering the same ground for the past 3 days and we're close to topping.  The FOMC minutes may be the catalyst to push these markets lower, so there is still the possibility of making new highs into Sunday/Monday.
 
1)  June Emini S&P probably will be stagnant in the 1140-1150 region.  Not worth trading tomorrow, but if you must you should be trading from the longside just in case the market takes off to end the week at a new high.
 
2)  Buy June Euro at 1.3670, with a 1.3604 stop.  Exit 1.3782.  The march currency contracts are expiring on Monday and major rollover took place today with a huge spike in volume.  The market has put in a bowl type of bottom and we'll have to see how she reacts to resistance at 1.38 going into the FOMC meeting.  But I suspect the announcement will be bullish for the dollar and inversely send all related markets lower after Tuesday.
 
3)  Sell April Crude on a stop at 81.12, with a 82.45 protective stop.  The market has respected the uptrend channel since the beginning of Feb. and as soon as we breach it look out below.  We've been in a congestion pattern which should come to a climax tomorrow.  If we break above 83 then we may very well see the 85 region for a double top before we descend back below 75.  If we cannot get a rally above 83 by Sunday then the market should be heading straight for 77, then a minor bounce to 81, before ultimately heading towards 70-72.  Along with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday, we have crude option expiration on Wednesday along with another inventory report, so it will be interesting to see how they end this week.
 
Best,
 
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Tues. Mar. 9th

Hello All,
 
We had a fairly uneventful Monday aside from the dip and recovery in oil.  Focus still seems to be on the dollar so we'll have to see what the change in commitment of traders will be tomorrow in reference to last weeks 50/50.  There aren't any major reports out tomorrow, so the lack of fundamentals may provide for another slow session.
 
1)  Hold Mar. Emini S&P shorts from 1133, with a 1144 stop.  Exit 1120.  Floor support is at 1120, and given the markets inability to muster up a significant rally today we should see a slight setback tomorrow.  At best we may only see 1125 where we may want to exit and re-enter after Wed. Crude inventory report.  The calm before the storm with Wierd Wally Wednesday as a precursor to next weeks option expirations.
 
2)  Hold Mar. Crude oil shorts from 81.80, with a 83.20 stop.  We were able to get a glimpse of how quickly this market can begin to slide, but were also reminded of the current markets trend and its ability to ignore fundamentals.  We have API and DOE data coming up, but with all the bearish news over the past few weeks we may actually need to get a bullish report to crack this market to the downside.  With stockpiles rising week after week we have to note that the forward curve is flattening out considerably. A 12 month contango has dropped from $8.32 per barrel to about $2.50 per barrel in the last 3 months.  If we can get a close below $81 tomorrow, I am confident we will see $77 into next week.
 
3)  Sell Mar. Euro on a stop at 1.3544, with a 1.3605 stop. Given its current weakness and the fact that gold and silver are also looking weak, leads me to believe that any flight to quality will go direcly to the dollar which will inevitably fuel the downside pressure.  A stronger dollar goes hand in hand with higher yields which plays into the big sell-off in bonds on Friday.  Resistance on the dollar is 80.90, so a breach of that level to the upside should coincide with our entry.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Fri. Mar. 5th

Hello All,

We have our unemployment numbers being released tomorrow morning 8:30 EST, and we pretty much had an inside day due to the fact.  The ECB kept its rates unchanged at 1%, but with ongoing fears in Greece they pulled the carpet out from under the Euro, and inversely strengthened the dollar.  This could also be combined with the fact that regardless of good news or bad news tomorrow, we're doing better than the Europeans, thus creating a flight to a better fiat currency.  Prices in the S&P can be inflated to the 1133 region where we should probably trigger off a sale.  Crude projects 81.80 where we will also probably want to go short.  And the Euro would probably be a sale around 1.3640 to retest the lows.  Also note that we have been rangebound in the Euro for 3 weeks now which worked out perfectly for our short option strangles.  We are exactly at the same price we were when we initiated the strangle on the 11th of Feb.

I'll have to wait and see how quickly these targets are reached before I can determine a protective stop.

Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com

*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Tues. Mar. 2nd

Hello All,
 
1)  Exit Mar. Emini S&P longs from 1088 at the market (1114.25) and reverse.  Go short, with a 1123 stop. Hold for a couple days.  I'm abandoning my upper target for now given the strength in the dollar and weakness in crude.  No need to be greedy, plus I feel we're out of time.  We should see a pullback for a couple days, which may be followed by another rally, but it will all depend on how deep we fall.  If we can crack below the 1090 region, then I don't think this market will be turning back up.

2)  Mar. Euro seems to have solid support around the 1.3450 region.  I would anticipate a larger rally going into next week, but it contradicts with a higher dollar.  The market is stuck in a congestion pattern and we'll have to wait for a breakout to anticipate any sort of target.  Ultimately should see lower prices into mid/late part of the month.
 
3) Sell April Crude at 79.08, with a 80.30 stop.  Exit 77.40 into Wed.  My upper target failed to come in, and those of you who did not reverse once stopped out at 79.30 should have an opportunity to get onboard.  If we can somehow manage to stay above 76.50 after this weeks inventory report, then my upper target of 82 may eventually come in by next week.  Which would coincide with another secondary high for the ES.  We'll play it day by day and see what develops.  For the time being, the current course of action is playing out perfectly with respect to timing.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Tues. Feb. 23rd

Hello All,
 
The markets are on stand-by awaiting the congressional testimony from Bernanke on Wednesday.  Last weeks rate hike was Bernanke's implication that we need to revitalize the interbank lending system, beginning to wean banks off of borrowing directly from the Fed.  The fear of not knowing whether the bank you were lending to would have its doors open tomorrow ceased interbank lending nearly overnight, and now the extreme liquidity that has propped up our markets is set to slowly evaporate.  This is ultimately the first test to see whether our capital markets have truly recovered, and should be viewed as a good thing.  The 'surprise' last week was met with massive selling, which is a natural reaction to doubting the timing of this feat.  Yet we must note that we have risen right back to levels prior to the surprise rate hike.  Psychologically I would imagine traders would not want to hold positions into the report, so we should see a slight dip tomorrow in most markets, and the markets very well may stay supressed through Thursday prior to bouncing.
 
1)  Sell Mar. Emini S&P at the market (1108.25), with a 1114.50 stop.  Exit 1098.00.  This would be a counter trend play, and at the very least should give scalpers a direction to trade.  I wouldn't expect more than 24% correction of the recent rally, which would be at the 1095 region.  If the market is really weak, there is an extended retracement to 1084.
 
2)  Sell April Crude Oil on a stop at 79.60, with a 80.36 protective stop.  Exit 78.55.  The April contract is now trading where the March contract expired today.  The intermonth spread tightened at expiration with its weight to the downside.  Fundamentals are not supportive of higher prices, but the charts indicate higher prices towards 82 or 84.50 as a double top before the fundamentals kick in.  Last weeks bearish inventory report should clear the weary out of the market ahead of Wed. inventory report, which should allow for a decent dip.  We will most likely look into reversing and buying depending on how she falls to our target.  There is an additional downside target of 77.50, but I wouldn't count on it in these lackluster conditions. 
 
3)  Buy Mar. Euro at 1.3612, with a 1.3570 stop.  Exit 1.3705.  The dollar index should be under heavy pressure to test the 80 region going into Wednesday's testimony and should provide continued support for the Euro.  The market is currently testing the 200 hour moving average and a break above to the 1.3650 region would call for additional buying along with stop orders being triggered right above Fridays high. A 24% extension of the recent rally would bring us to 1.3705, which coincides with a 76% retracement of the range for the last 2 weeks.  Key support is at 1.3578, with resistance at 1.3658 and 1.3705.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Wed. Feb. 17th

Hello All,
 
A hefty rally in stocks, a 4% spike in oil prices, and the largest one day rally for the Euro in the last 4 months.  Although impressive, the risk reward neither favors selling resistance or buying the strength.  The trends should continue through the later part of trading tomorrow with the S&P probably peaking at a max of 1106, Crude peaking between a max of 78.30-78.50, and the Euro at 1.3840.  We will try to do countertrend sales once we reach those levels, and hopefully the market will have lost enough steam as for us to not get run over.  Slightly taking out all the previous highs and retracing could begin a congestive pattern for the next week or two prior to breaking out to the upside.  Chinese new year will imit speculation and volume.

 
1)  Sell Mar. Emini S&P at 1104.25, with a 1111.50 stop.  Exit 1083.00.
 
2)  Sell Mar. Crude Oil at 78.27, with a 79.11 stop.  Exit 75.28.  Tomorrows crude oil inventory report will be released on Thursday due to the Monday holiday.
 
3)  Sell Mar. Euro at 1.3837, with a 1.3912 stop.  Exit 1.3686.
 
All 3 trades are similar with respect to the 62% retracement level as resistance and 38% exit target.
 
Best,

 
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Fri. Feb. 12th

Hello All,

Another interesting day.  None of our entries hit from last nights report, but the initial downside direction was correct for the most part.  We were expecting some more detailed information with regards to the EU's bailout plan for Greece, however plans are postponed to be released Monday/Tuesday.  Greece's statement that it did not request any assistance provided immediate support, but just because you don't ask for a handout doesn't mean you're solvent.  Overall there's too much trouble brewing in Europe and ultimately we've seen temporary highs in most markets at least for the next few months. Keep in mind we have an abbreviated President's day holiday session on Monday so I suspect we'll have Greece's plans revealed on Tuesday.  I'm doubtful anyone would want to be holding any positions over a 3 day weekend, but todays strength could be continued tomorrow, only to be sold into early next week.  The notable move in Gold is evident of a flight to quality.  And you can also notice the big moves in the currencies as assets are being shifted out of Euros and into Australian and Canadian dollars.

1)  Sell Mar. Emini S&P at 1086, with a 1095 stop.  Exit to be determined.  If the market were to extend its current rally by another 24% it would intersect close enough to the 76% retracement of the fall from 1100. Once again we may be asking for too much at 1086, but it would provide the proper risk reward.  I think we'll eventually see 1000 sometime in late March, and depending on whether we can get crude ripping to the upside by that time, it will fuel acceleration to ultimately see 1200-1300 into July.

2)  Sell Mar. Crude at 76.32, with a 77.17 stop.  We came within 30 ticks of getting filled and if the market were to start heading back up to get us filled on the ES, I would suspect slightly higher prices than last nights target.  We have our delayed DOE inventory report tomorrow due to the snowstorm, and we have to keep in mind we had a hugely bearish API report of a build of 7.2 million barrels.  So lets see how tomorrows #s compare.

3)  Sell Mar. Euro at 1.3747, with a 1.3790 stop.  Exit 1.3511.  We bounced off the 1.36 level which could be seen as a double bottom, but this market is ultimately doomed for the 1.32 region over the next few weeks.  The bad news being deflected away from the US and onto Europe is actually re-stabilizing prices back to what we're use to with a fairly stronger dollar and the Euro trading at a fairer value.

4)  Buy Mar. Jap. Yen at 1.1090, with a 1.1041 stop.  Exit 1.1470.  This is the only market that has been stagnant, and I'm assuming it will join the rest of the foreign currencies heading higher as the Euro continues to tumble.  This can turn out to be a real nice positions trade for a week or so.

Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com

*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Tues. Feb. 9th

Hello All,
 
The markets held up well today after last weeks pandemonium .  I suspect we will see additional support Tuesday and then continued weakness into Thurs/Fri.  The Euro has held support at the 38% extension of the move from 1/13-1/29, and may have a decent chance to test the 200 hour moving average at 1.3850 which would be 100% retracement of the extension.  The dollar index should provide additional support as there should be some backing and filling just above 80.00.  Crude oil bounced off a seven week low, which could be attributed to the lower dollar, cold in the east, and Iran planning to enrich uranium to higher levels.  Overall, the strength in gold as an inflation hedge should spread to outside markets and support by analysis.

1)  Buy Mar. Emini S&P at the market (1057), with a 1047.50 stop.  Exit 1071.00.  Should see a bounce on Tuesday before we get continued pressure to ultimately see 1035.
 
2)  Buy Mar. Euro on a stop at 1.3748, with a 1.3711 protective stop.  Exit 1.3832.  The slight dollar weakness, or lack of bullishness should allow for a larger retracement and then ultimately we could see new lows over the next week.  Look to reverse position once exited.
 
3)  Sell. Mar. Crude at 73.77, with a 74.20 stop.  Exit 70.00.  If the market can break above 72.50 overnight then we should stand a good chance of being filled.  All eyes should be on the dollar, as this market is not leading but following.  Debt concerns in Europe triggered buying of the US dollar and thus deflated commodity prices as they are dollar denominated worldwide.  No particular reports due in the next 24 hours, so we should see some back filling to the upside going into tomorrow afternoons API report.
 
Best,
 
 
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Fri. Feb. 5th

Hello All,
 
Fear is here to stay for at least another week.  Concerns in Europe with regards to Greece, Spain and Portugal are leading the fundamentals.  In after hours action the Euro has gone beyond my 1.37 target, and could be vulnerable for a bigger push down to 1.35 before we see a retracement into Sunday/Monday, but there is no risk reward to be buying.  There is some major unwinding of positions with regards to currency spreads and hopefully it will be done within the next few days to begin a new pattern.  The biggest shock of the day was crude, and although it may have been an exaggerated move we have to respect market movement.  I suspect Crude should stay within the 70-73.50 range within the next week, and I probably wouldn't feel too comfortable buying it until next Friday, as there is a slight possibility we can see 68 next week.  With regards to the S&P, the bullish moves on Monday/Tuesday had me switch patterns, and now going back to last weeks research we should utlimately see 1035 to complete this correction.
 
Unemployment data is set to release at 5:30am PST tomorrow, and although I suspect a volatile move in the currencies, I wouldn't be surprised if its a dull reaction.  Both Tuesday and Thursday this week, typically expected to be quiet days before reports have proven otherwise.  Everything may already be baked in the cake.  We shall find out tomorrow.
 
1)  Sell Mar. Emini S&P at 1074.25, with a 1083.00 stop.  Exit 1047.75.  The A wave down from 1150 to 1070, was retraced 38% to the 1100 region, and a 24% extension would take us to 1057, 38% to 1046, and 50% to 1035.  1074 may be asking for too much to trigger a sale, but after all this craziness its better to try and get the best risk/reward.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Fri. Jan. 29th

Hello All,
 
Along with additonal earnings, the big question of the day was whether Bernanke would serve a new term.  I don't believe anyone thought otherwise, the last thing we needed was a substitute chairman to get us through this mess.  We have GDP due out tomorrow and unless we get any positive surprise, the pressure should remain to the downside. 
 
It felt good to have my trades spot on after a week of observation.  The notable move was the breakdown on the S&P and our chances of exiting 1062 into late Fri or early Sunday looks pretty good.
 
1)  Hold Mar. Emini S&P shorts from 1102, with a 1096.00 stop.  Exit 1062.75.  If the market reacts favorably to the GDP # tomorrow, I would add shorts at 1088, using the same stop loss.  We may only get to the 1071 region prior to lunch.
 
2) Hold Mar. Crude Oil shorts and add another short if the market gets to 74.65, with a 75.40 stop.  Exit 72.20.  There wasn't enough pressure to really breakdown this market, nor to start a rally.  I suspect we will see slightly higher prices to create a small bull trap for the earlybirds.  The pattern needs to complete near 72 before I will consider buying.
 
3)  Take profits on Short Mar. Euro's from 1.4048.  The market seems to be holding up well at the 24% extension at 1.3906 and end of the month and end of the week profit taking should set in.  It is still possible for us to hit the 1.3850 region, but no reason to be greedy when we're up 1300 per contract.  I may even be comfortable buying the market around 1.3886, but we'll play it by ear in the morning.
 
Overall, I think some market correlations will be off with respect to timing tomorrow, but it will be necessary to complete patterns to end the first month of 2010.
 
Best,

 
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.