Hello All,
Along with additonal earnings, the big question of the day was whether Bernanke would serve a new term. I don't believe anyone thought otherwise, the last thing we needed was a substitute chairman to get us through this mess. We have GDP due out tomorrow and unless we get any positive surprise, the pressure should remain to the downside.
It felt good to have my trades spot on after a week of observation. The notable move was the breakdown on the S&P and our chances of exiting 1062 into late Fri or early Sunday looks pretty good.
1) Hold Mar. Emini S&P shorts from 1102, with a 1096.00 stop. Exit 1062.75. If the market reacts favorably to the GDP # tomorrow, I would add shorts at 1088, using the same stop loss. We may only get to the 1071 region prior to lunch.
2) Hold Mar. Crude Oil shorts and add another short if the market gets to 74.65, with a 75.40 stop. Exit 72.20. There wasn't enough pressure to really breakdown this market, nor to start a rally. I suspect we will see slightly higher prices to create a small bull trap for the earlybirds. The pattern needs to complete near 72 before I will consider buying.
3) Take profits on Short Mar. Euro's from 1.4048. The market seems to be holding up well at the 24% extension at 1.3906 and end of the month and end of the week profit taking should set in. It is still possible for us to hit the 1.3850 region, but no reason to be greedy when we're up 1300 per contract. I may even be comfortable buying the market around 1.3886, but we'll play it by ear in the morning.
Overall, I think some market correlations will be off with respect to timing tomorrow, but it will be necessary to complete patterns to end the first month of 2010.
Best,
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
*There is a risk of loss trading futures. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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