Trade Recommendations for Tues. Feb. 23rd

Hello All,
 
The markets are on stand-by awaiting the congressional testimony from Bernanke on Wednesday.  Last weeks rate hike was Bernanke's implication that we need to revitalize the interbank lending system, beginning to wean banks off of borrowing directly from the Fed.  The fear of not knowing whether the bank you were lending to would have its doors open tomorrow ceased interbank lending nearly overnight, and now the extreme liquidity that has propped up our markets is set to slowly evaporate.  This is ultimately the first test to see whether our capital markets have truly recovered, and should be viewed as a good thing.  The 'surprise' last week was met with massive selling, which is a natural reaction to doubting the timing of this feat.  Yet we must note that we have risen right back to levels prior to the surprise rate hike.  Psychologically I would imagine traders would not want to hold positions into the report, so we should see a slight dip tomorrow in most markets, and the markets very well may stay supressed through Thursday prior to bouncing.
 
1)  Sell Mar. Emini S&P at the market (1108.25), with a 1114.50 stop.  Exit 1098.00.  This would be a counter trend play, and at the very least should give scalpers a direction to trade.  I wouldn't expect more than 24% correction of the recent rally, which would be at the 1095 region.  If the market is really weak, there is an extended retracement to 1084.
 
2)  Sell April Crude Oil on a stop at 79.60, with a 80.36 protective stop.  Exit 78.55.  The April contract is now trading where the March contract expired today.  The intermonth spread tightened at expiration with its weight to the downside.  Fundamentals are not supportive of higher prices, but the charts indicate higher prices towards 82 or 84.50 as a double top before the fundamentals kick in.  Last weeks bearish inventory report should clear the weary out of the market ahead of Wed. inventory report, which should allow for a decent dip.  We will most likely look into reversing and buying depending on how she falls to our target.  There is an additional downside target of 77.50, but I wouldn't count on it in these lackluster conditions. 
 
3)  Buy Mar. Euro at 1.3612, with a 1.3570 stop.  Exit 1.3705.  The dollar index should be under heavy pressure to test the 80 region going into Wednesday's testimony and should provide continued support for the Euro.  The market is currently testing the 200 hour moving average and a break above to the 1.3650 region would call for additional buying along with stop orders being triggered right above Fridays high. A 24% extension of the recent rally would bring us to 1.3705, which coincides with a 76% retracement of the range for the last 2 weeks.  Key support is at 1.3578, with resistance at 1.3658 and 1.3705.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Wed. Feb. 17th

Hello All,
 
A hefty rally in stocks, a 4% spike in oil prices, and the largest one day rally for the Euro in the last 4 months.  Although impressive, the risk reward neither favors selling resistance or buying the strength.  The trends should continue through the later part of trading tomorrow with the S&P probably peaking at a max of 1106, Crude peaking between a max of 78.30-78.50, and the Euro at 1.3840.  We will try to do countertrend sales once we reach those levels, and hopefully the market will have lost enough steam as for us to not get run over.  Slightly taking out all the previous highs and retracing could begin a congestive pattern for the next week or two prior to breaking out to the upside.  Chinese new year will imit speculation and volume.

 
1)  Sell Mar. Emini S&P at 1104.25, with a 1111.50 stop.  Exit 1083.00.
 
2)  Sell Mar. Crude Oil at 78.27, with a 79.11 stop.  Exit 75.28.  Tomorrows crude oil inventory report will be released on Thursday due to the Monday holiday.
 
3)  Sell Mar. Euro at 1.3837, with a 1.3912 stop.  Exit 1.3686.
 
All 3 trades are similar with respect to the 62% retracement level as resistance and 38% exit target.
 
Best,

 
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Fri. Feb. 12th

Hello All,

Another interesting day.  None of our entries hit from last nights report, but the initial downside direction was correct for the most part.  We were expecting some more detailed information with regards to the EU's bailout plan for Greece, however plans are postponed to be released Monday/Tuesday.  Greece's statement that it did not request any assistance provided immediate support, but just because you don't ask for a handout doesn't mean you're solvent.  Overall there's too much trouble brewing in Europe and ultimately we've seen temporary highs in most markets at least for the next few months. Keep in mind we have an abbreviated President's day holiday session on Monday so I suspect we'll have Greece's plans revealed on Tuesday.  I'm doubtful anyone would want to be holding any positions over a 3 day weekend, but todays strength could be continued tomorrow, only to be sold into early next week.  The notable move in Gold is evident of a flight to quality.  And you can also notice the big moves in the currencies as assets are being shifted out of Euros and into Australian and Canadian dollars.

1)  Sell Mar. Emini S&P at 1086, with a 1095 stop.  Exit to be determined.  If the market were to extend its current rally by another 24% it would intersect close enough to the 76% retracement of the fall from 1100. Once again we may be asking for too much at 1086, but it would provide the proper risk reward.  I think we'll eventually see 1000 sometime in late March, and depending on whether we can get crude ripping to the upside by that time, it will fuel acceleration to ultimately see 1200-1300 into July.

2)  Sell Mar. Crude at 76.32, with a 77.17 stop.  We came within 30 ticks of getting filled and if the market were to start heading back up to get us filled on the ES, I would suspect slightly higher prices than last nights target.  We have our delayed DOE inventory report tomorrow due to the snowstorm, and we have to keep in mind we had a hugely bearish API report of a build of 7.2 million barrels.  So lets see how tomorrows #s compare.

3)  Sell Mar. Euro at 1.3747, with a 1.3790 stop.  Exit 1.3511.  We bounced off the 1.36 level which could be seen as a double bottom, but this market is ultimately doomed for the 1.32 region over the next few weeks.  The bad news being deflected away from the US and onto Europe is actually re-stabilizing prices back to what we're use to with a fairly stronger dollar and the Euro trading at a fairer value.

4)  Buy Mar. Jap. Yen at 1.1090, with a 1.1041 stop.  Exit 1.1470.  This is the only market that has been stagnant, and I'm assuming it will join the rest of the foreign currencies heading higher as the Euro continues to tumble.  This can turn out to be a real nice positions trade for a week or so.

Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com

*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Tues. Feb. 9th

Hello All,
 
The markets held up well today after last weeks pandemonium .  I suspect we will see additional support Tuesday and then continued weakness into Thurs/Fri.  The Euro has held support at the 38% extension of the move from 1/13-1/29, and may have a decent chance to test the 200 hour moving average at 1.3850 which would be 100% retracement of the extension.  The dollar index should provide additional support as there should be some backing and filling just above 80.00.  Crude oil bounced off a seven week low, which could be attributed to the lower dollar, cold in the east, and Iran planning to enrich uranium to higher levels.  Overall, the strength in gold as an inflation hedge should spread to outside markets and support by analysis.

1)  Buy Mar. Emini S&P at the market (1057), with a 1047.50 stop.  Exit 1071.00.  Should see a bounce on Tuesday before we get continued pressure to ultimately see 1035.
 
2)  Buy Mar. Euro on a stop at 1.3748, with a 1.3711 protective stop.  Exit 1.3832.  The slight dollar weakness, or lack of bullishness should allow for a larger retracement and then ultimately we could see new lows over the next week.  Look to reverse position once exited.
 
3)  Sell. Mar. Crude at 73.77, with a 74.20 stop.  Exit 70.00.  If the market can break above 72.50 overnight then we should stand a good chance of being filled.  All eyes should be on the dollar, as this market is not leading but following.  Debt concerns in Europe triggered buying of the US dollar and thus deflated commodity prices as they are dollar denominated worldwide.  No particular reports due in the next 24 hours, so we should see some back filling to the upside going into tomorrow afternoons API report.
 
Best,
 
 
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Fri. Feb. 5th

Hello All,
 
Fear is here to stay for at least another week.  Concerns in Europe with regards to Greece, Spain and Portugal are leading the fundamentals.  In after hours action the Euro has gone beyond my 1.37 target, and could be vulnerable for a bigger push down to 1.35 before we see a retracement into Sunday/Monday, but there is no risk reward to be buying.  There is some major unwinding of positions with regards to currency spreads and hopefully it will be done within the next few days to begin a new pattern.  The biggest shock of the day was crude, and although it may have been an exaggerated move we have to respect market movement.  I suspect Crude should stay within the 70-73.50 range within the next week, and I probably wouldn't feel too comfortable buying it until next Friday, as there is a slight possibility we can see 68 next week.  With regards to the S&P, the bullish moves on Monday/Tuesday had me switch patterns, and now going back to last weeks research we should utlimately see 1035 to complete this correction.
 
Unemployment data is set to release at 5:30am PST tomorrow, and although I suspect a volatile move in the currencies, I wouldn't be surprised if its a dull reaction.  Both Tuesday and Thursday this week, typically expected to be quiet days before reports have proven otherwise.  Everything may already be baked in the cake.  We shall find out tomorrow.
 
1)  Sell Mar. Emini S&P at 1074.25, with a 1083.00 stop.  Exit 1047.75.  The A wave down from 1150 to 1070, was retraced 38% to the 1100 region, and a 24% extension would take us to 1057, 38% to 1046, and 50% to 1035.  1074 may be asking for too much to trigger a sale, but after all this craziness its better to try and get the best risk/reward.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.