Hello All,
The markets held up well today after last weeks pandemonium . I suspect we will see additional support Tuesday and then continued weakness into Thurs/Fri. The Euro has held support at the 38% extension of the move from 1/13-1/29, and may have a decent chance to test the 200 hour moving average at 1.3850 which would be 100% retracement of the extension. The dollar index should provide additional support as there should be some backing and filling just above 80.00. Crude oil bounced off a seven week low, which could be attributed to the lower dollar, cold in the east, and Iran planning to enrich uranium to higher levels. Overall, the strength in gold as an inflation hedge should spread to outside markets and support by analysis.
1) Buy Mar. Emini S&P at the market (1057), with a 1047.50 stop. Exit 1071.00. Should see a bounce on Tuesday before we get continued pressure to ultimately see 1035.
2) Buy Mar. Euro on a stop at 1.3748, with a 1.3711 protective stop. Exit 1.3832. The slight dollar weakness, or lack of bullishness should allow for a larger retracement and then ultimately we could see new lows over the next week. Look to reverse position once exited.
3) Sell. Mar. Crude at 73.77, with a 74.20 stop. Exit 70.00. If the market can break above 72.50 overnight then we should stand a good chance of being filled. All eyes should be on the dollar, as this market is not leading but following. Debt concerns in Europe triggered buying of the US dollar and thus deflated commodity prices as they are dollar denominated worldwide. No particular reports due in the next 24 hours, so we should see some back filling to the upside going into tomorrow afternoons API report.
Best,
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
*There is a risk of loss trading futures. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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