Futures Broker Recommendations for Thurs. May 20th

Hello All,
 
It seems as though the bounce off the 4 year low in the Euro may be significant enough to support a rally towards 1.28.  If that is the case, it should provide support for the S&P for a possible recovery towards 1140 into Sunday's session, coinciding with a rise in crude towards $77 basis July.  If this scenario pans out, it will present an excellent selling opportunity across the board.  Concerns over Europes slowing economy will not go away that quickly and although we are entitled to a technical bounce, nobody wants to be long anything, and todays talks about 'de-risking' only confirms the case. The interim technical bounce is not necessary, so tonight's action will be important to see whether we can hold current support.  If 1100 breaks on the S&P, I would suspect a quick drop to 1075 and then 1052, which would point towards 1.19 on the Euro and $68 crude basis July.  If we start to get the bounce I'm anticipating we'll look to put on positions in the morning.  It is becoming more and more difficult to pinpoint entries in these conditions, so we'll be in touch in the morning.
 
Best,
 
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futures Broker Recommendations for Tues. May 18th

Hello All,
 
Oversold conditions are beginning to show light of reversals.  I would expect higher numbers across the board the rest of the week.  Stocks rose after the Euro rebounded, and todays lows should not be taken out tomorrow.  Europe should be getting its first influx of capital from the bailout tomorrow and that should be enough news to set a recovery towards 1.2850 on the Euro.  Inversely, the dollar index should be a sale looking for the 84 region, and ultimately stocks may make a new high or at least test the highs one more time before we have a more definitive analysis with respect to how Europe is stagnating the US economy.  Crude squeezed into option expiration today, and has since begun to slowly rally.  We should have API and DOE data over the next couple of days that should reflect a more bullish tone, but technically this market is in major need of a 4th wave retracement to the upside.  All eyes will continue to watch the Euro, and if we can sustain current levels overnight I woud have no problem being long in the morning.
 
Orders contingent upon fills after 5:30am PST.
 
1)  Buy June Emini S&P futures at 1226, with a 1218 stop.  Exit 1252.
 
2)  Buy June Euro futures at 1.2289, with a 1.2140 stop.  Exit 1.2850.
 
3)  Buy July Crude oil futures at 73.70, with a 72.84 stop.  Exit 78.21.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futures Broker Recommendations for Thurs. May 13th

Hello All,
 
Stocks continued to hold up well and have almost reached my 1180 target on the S&P. They should continue to show strength into Sunday with inevitable new highs, possibly around 1195.  Afterwards I would expect an ABC correction for a couple weeks and then another 5 waves up.  The Euro remained pressured the last couple of days, however I feel the dollar will meet enough resistance for a correction over the next few sessions.  The Euro should present a nice area to sell on Sunday/Monday.  Tough to say exactly where the market can potentially reach, but after all the mayhem I'm happy getting the direction right for the most part.  We had a bearish crude report today and the contango between june/july is increasing going into expiration on Monday.  I would expect higher prices into the weekend, and then we may be headed toward lower numbers given the concern over European demand.  The key market that has everyones attention at the moment is Gold.  We put in a new high as a flight to safety, and if we can take out 1250 we should be headed straight towards 1310.  Given the current pullback, I wouldn't expect the price of Gold to go below 1220 before a fresh surge of capital comes in.
 
Rather than concentrate on some futures positions, I have worked out all the tweaks with respect to my new option strategy and will be ready to implement over the next couple of sessions.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futures Broker Recommendations for Tues. May 11th

Hello All,
 
So we finally got the EU bailout package we were waiting for, set at nearly $1 billion.  Many markets rallied significantly on the news, and some have begun to retrace, particularly the Euro.  I would have expected at least 2-3 days of small rallies to achieve the levels we reached last night before we saw any type of retracement, but the tape seems to be on fast-forward nowadays.  I would expect additional choppiness tomorrow as an inside day.  Skeptics are still pressuring the downside, however it should be safe to have an upward bias.  Oil rallied significantly and closed rougly $2 higher for the day, but that doesn't nearly compare to the $11 drop last week.  I would anticipate a $79 target basis June by weeks end, but it will be a choppy ride getting their with initial resistance at 77.50.  You can assume that the Euro is closing the gap on the charts from yesterdays open, and should at least head for 1.29 by the end of the week, which would correlate with 1.51 for the BP.  Not necessarily sure I would want to be long overnight, but will look into buying at the open tomorrow.  Stocks rallied significantly on the news, and we should now target the 1180 region on the S&P.  If we can somehow retrace to lower levels overnight towards 1140, we would want to be buyers anticipating another leg up.
 
1)  Buy JuneEmini S&P futures at 1138, with a 1125 stop.  Exit 1175.
 
2)  Buy June Euro futures at the open of the stock market tomorrow, with a 95 point stop.  Exit 1.29.
 
3)  Buy June Crude oil futures at 75.65, with a 74.80 stop.  Exit 77.50.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futures Broker Recommendations for Fri. May 7th

Hello All,
 
Today was a day that will go down in history for all the wrong reasons.  We began the day with the ECB holding rates steady at 1%, with widening concerns that Greece's debt woes will spread to neighboring countries.  Greece passed its austerity measure to comply with its bailout package, cutting pensions and civil servants pay and further hiked consumer taxes which started riots.  Fear was at the pinnacle of all trading when computerized trades began to kick-in and abuse the illiquidity in the markets.  For a 30minute span, we all witnessed unbelievable moves across the board.  Up/Down 50-75 ticks per second across most currency markets portrayed the lack of bids/asks.  In all the chaos, after everyone and their mother got cleaned out with regards to stops or margin calls, nobody dared enter the market.  It turns out that the Nasdaq is actually cancelling all trades between 2:40-3pm EST, anything that traded above/below 60% of the prior days close.  All in all, we witnessed what a 'fully automated' trading system is capable of when gone awry.  This will only begin to bring measures of restricting and slowing institutional trading systems to prevent chaos.  Pretty sure Obama will have something to say about this tomorrow morning.  Even though the extreme downward moves were un-warranted, the fear that spilled over to other markets washed everyone out.  Whether todays moves were triggered by computer or human error still remains to be investigated, but the fact that stocks regained most of the move is a good sign.  Tomorrow's unemployment report shouldn't have any effect on the markets after todays chaos, and tomorrow should be a consolidation day to the upside.  I suspect tomorrow will be a relatively quiet day, and so far so good in after hours as we are getting proper retracements in the really active markets.  I probably wouldn't want to be long or short over the weekend as we await British election results, but the institutions may have word of what really went on before we do and load up at these levels.  If we are really going into a double-dip, we should at least see upward retracements into Monday/Tuesday before some fresh sellers step in.  S&P should get up to 1149, Crude up to $79, and the Euro up to 1.29.

Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Tues. May 4th

Hello All,
 
Beginning of the month fund buying pushed stocks higher and presents a possible congestion pattern through Thursday prior to breaking up to new highs.  Still shooting for 1224 basis June S&P, we should bounce between 1190-1206 until then.  All in anticipation of our unemployment report on Friday which will be the catalyst for higher prices.  The Euro tested its lows for a 5th leg down, and it held its 76% retracement level.  If we break the days lows, we should be in for a drop to 1.3050.  Speculators believe that the $146 billion dollar bailout would not suffice with additional support needed if Spain, Portugal, and Ireland are next in line.  Surprisingly Crude oil was unable to muster up much of a rally above $87 even with the transportation problems in the Gulf associated to the oil leak.  We touched an 18-month high and have since retraced.  I would like to assume that tomorrow will be sideways action prior to the API and DOE data for crude, but it'll depend on whether the congestion pattern in stocks holds true.  Given the current strength in the dollar, prices should remain subdued with a possible retest of the $84 region prior to supply data and then lift us back above $86 going into Fridays report in hopes of testing $88 by next Monday.
 
1)  Buy June Emini S&P at 1192, with a 1186 stop.  Exit 1205.
 
2)  Sell June Euro at the market (1.3181), with a 1.3224 stop.  Exit 1.3060.
 
3)  Crude is a toss up with the Gulf oil leak, rather not play it just inside the range.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.