Hello All,
Some of my respective exit targets have come in, and some have yet to manifest. But given crude option expiration tomorrow, and stock option ex on Friday we should be in store for some unpredictable volatility. After the nice run we've had over the past couple of weeks, I won't press my luck too much as I feel the markets are almost ready to reverse. Although it looks tempting to sell, it would be premature with possibilities of exceeding my expected targets based on shear short covering.
1) Sept Emini S&P has upper targets of 1118, 1127, and 1136. I would feel safe selling the top two resistance levels, but would rather wait for signals of a reversal before getting aboard. As I always say, I'd rather be late to the party than the one paying for it.
2) Sept. Euro has broken below the upward trending channel support which implies a possible breakdown, but it is still holding above the previous low. It all really depends if crude will reach the upper target of 78.50 tomorrow, which will provide support for the Euro to possibly reach up to 1.24, but it seems doubtful at the moment.
3) July Crude oil reached my 77.70 target and then some, but ultimately we will need to reach 78.50 to complete my cycle work. We had a bearish inventory report, and ofcourse they ripped it in the opposite direction. With option ex tomorrow, nothing should surprise us. Better to sit back and enjoy the fireworks, if any.
If indeed the markets fail to put in higher highs, we should be in for 2-3 days lower and then congestion into the FOMC announcement. We have to ask ourselves at which level prior to the report will the direction be most confusing?
Best,
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
*There is a risk of loss trading futures. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Some of my respective exit targets have come in, and some have yet to manifest. But given crude option expiration tomorrow, and stock option ex on Friday we should be in store for some unpredictable volatility. After the nice run we've had over the past couple of weeks, I won't press my luck too much as I feel the markets are almost ready to reverse. Although it looks tempting to sell, it would be premature with possibilities of exceeding my expected targets based on shear short covering.
1) Sept Emini S&P has upper targets of 1118, 1127, and 1136. I would feel safe selling the top two resistance levels, but would rather wait for signals of a reversal before getting aboard. As I always say, I'd rather be late to the party than the one paying for it.
2) Sept. Euro has broken below the upward trending channel support which implies a possible breakdown, but it is still holding above the previous low. It all really depends if crude will reach the upper target of 78.50 tomorrow, which will provide support for the Euro to possibly reach up to 1.24, but it seems doubtful at the moment.
3) July Crude oil reached my 77.70 target and then some, but ultimately we will need to reach 78.50 to complete my cycle work. We had a bearish inventory report, and ofcourse they ripped it in the opposite direction. With option ex tomorrow, nothing should surprise us. Better to sit back and enjoy the fireworks, if any.
If indeed the markets fail to put in higher highs, we should be in for 2-3 days lower and then congestion into the FOMC announcement. We have to ask ourselves at which level prior to the report will the direction be most confusing?
Best,
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
*There is a risk of loss trading futures. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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