Hello All,
1) Buy Sept. Emini S&P at the market (1086.25), and rebuy at 1077 if the market heads lower, using a 1068 protective stop. Exit 1118. We were able to exit our long position from Friday at 1101 for practically 30 pts profit. Moody's downgraded Greek bonds once again, and there was a sell-off across the board. However, what's so new about that? That info should already be baked into the cake and the reaction was overdone. Damage was not done technically, so we should still be inclined for higher prices and it may just take until Friday's option ex to reach our target. The market has attempted to break above 1100 three times in the last couple of weeks, and typically if theres a 4th attempt it will indeed break. We don't have any important economic data for tomorrow, but have enough reports on Wed to provide us with the catalyst we need.
2) Buy Sept Euro currency futures at the market (1.2228), with a 1.2150 stop. Exit targets of 1.2355, 1.2389, and 1.2505. The Euro showed signs of weakness into the close, but we cannot ignore the overall rally, and I feel the market will probably chop between 1.2200 and 1.2500 going into our FOMC meeting next week. The dollar index has support at 85.80, so theres another point underneath which would support my theory for higher foreign currencies.
3) Buy Sept. British Pound futures at 1.4726, with a 1.4645 stop. Exit 1.4978. The BP has been a mess to trade over the last few sessions, but finally broke above resistance and should attract enough attention to reach targets of 1.4874, 1.4905, 1.4978, and 1.5025. Another currency pointing higher, so I cannot ignore the charts.
4) Buy July Crude oil futures at 74.80, with a 73.82 stop. Exit 78.50. Crude sold off dramatically after Moody's cut, but came back to life into the close. Such volatility just washes out all the weak position holders and going into this week's inventory report I would expect another bullish reaction. If the market retraces 50% of the fall from the May high/low, it would be at 78.50, which also coincides with a 38% extension of the recent rally from the 6/6 low. We also have July options expiring on Thursday, so if we get a rally it would support my option ex theory for stocks as well.
Best,
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
*There is a risk of loss trading futures. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Comments