Trade Recommendations for Tues. Mar. 16th

Hello All,
 
It seems as though our analysis is correct and the markets are topping on schedule.  We have our FOMC rate decision tomorrow around 11:15am PST, and although it's fair to say that the rates will remain unchanged, the focus will be on the verbage of the minutes.  Rates have remained near 0 since Dec. 2008, and with the given economic recovery it is only a matter of time before we really have to jumpstart the capital markets by getting interbank lending on its own feet.  Could we be in store for rate hike verbage as early as the next meeting(April 27th)?  As soon as they decide to drop the phrase "extended period", it would be extremely dollar bullish.  My assumption is that tomorrows reaction will be in support of the dollar with continued hawkish speculation, which will continue to pressure commodities and foreign currencies.  If that is the case, then we can see continued downward pressure in 3 waves through April 20th, with a slight corrective rally March 25th-30th.
 
1)  Sell June Emini S&P at 1154.00, with a 1165.75 stop.  Exit to be determined.
 
2)  Hold April Crude oil shorts from 81.12.  Use a 81.15 protective stop.  Exit 77.00.  She's the leader, so watch her take out the low of the day and the surrounding markets will tumble.  It's funny how 'now' they realize demand isn't keeping up.  Reactions are either too quick or too slow nowadays.
 
3)  Sell June Euro at 1.3720, with a 1.3766 stop.  Exit 1.3488.  The market should remain steady going into the report, and then we should see a sell the fact reaction.  And surprisingly, I anticipate we will continue to be rangebound for at least another week or two before descending to new lows.
 
Best,

 
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Fri. Mar. 12th

Hello All,
 
I'm glad we didn't place any trades today as their wasn't much going on, we would have been sitting ducks.  The markets were little changed with a stable dollar after government reports showed that the trade deficit narrowed, indicating a slowing economic recovery.  We've been covering the same ground for the past 3 days and we're close to topping.  The FOMC minutes may be the catalyst to push these markets lower, so there is still the possibility of making new highs into Sunday/Monday.
 
1)  June Emini S&P probably will be stagnant in the 1140-1150 region.  Not worth trading tomorrow, but if you must you should be trading from the longside just in case the market takes off to end the week at a new high.
 
2)  Buy June Euro at 1.3670, with a 1.3604 stop.  Exit 1.3782.  The march currency contracts are expiring on Monday and major rollover took place today with a huge spike in volume.  The market has put in a bowl type of bottom and we'll have to see how she reacts to resistance at 1.38 going into the FOMC meeting.  But I suspect the announcement will be bullish for the dollar and inversely send all related markets lower after Tuesday.
 
3)  Sell April Crude on a stop at 81.12, with a 82.45 protective stop.  The market has respected the uptrend channel since the beginning of Feb. and as soon as we breach it look out below.  We've been in a congestion pattern which should come to a climax tomorrow.  If we break above 83 then we may very well see the 85 region for a double top before we descend back below 75.  If we cannot get a rally above 83 by Sunday then the market should be heading straight for 77, then a minor bounce to 81, before ultimately heading towards 70-72.  Along with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday, we have crude option expiration on Wednesday along with another inventory report, so it will be interesting to see how they end this week.
 
Best,
 
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Tues. Mar. 9th

Hello All,
 
We had a fairly uneventful Monday aside from the dip and recovery in oil.  Focus still seems to be on the dollar so we'll have to see what the change in commitment of traders will be tomorrow in reference to last weeks 50/50.  There aren't any major reports out tomorrow, so the lack of fundamentals may provide for another slow session.
 
1)  Hold Mar. Emini S&P shorts from 1133, with a 1144 stop.  Exit 1120.  Floor support is at 1120, and given the markets inability to muster up a significant rally today we should see a slight setback tomorrow.  At best we may only see 1125 where we may want to exit and re-enter after Wed. Crude inventory report.  The calm before the storm with Wierd Wally Wednesday as a precursor to next weeks option expirations.
 
2)  Hold Mar. Crude oil shorts from 81.80, with a 83.20 stop.  We were able to get a glimpse of how quickly this market can begin to slide, but were also reminded of the current markets trend and its ability to ignore fundamentals.  We have API and DOE data coming up, but with all the bearish news over the past few weeks we may actually need to get a bullish report to crack this market to the downside.  With stockpiles rising week after week we have to note that the forward curve is flattening out considerably. A 12 month contango has dropped from $8.32 per barrel to about $2.50 per barrel in the last 3 months.  If we can get a close below $81 tomorrow, I am confident we will see $77 into next week.
 
3)  Sell Mar. Euro on a stop at 1.3544, with a 1.3605 stop. Given its current weakness and the fact that gold and silver are also looking weak, leads me to believe that any flight to quality will go direcly to the dollar which will inevitably fuel the downside pressure.  A stronger dollar goes hand in hand with higher yields which plays into the big sell-off in bonds on Friday.  Resistance on the dollar is 80.90, so a breach of that level to the upside should coincide with our entry.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trade Recommendations for Tues. Dec. 29th

Hello All,
 
I hope everyone had a joyous holiday with friends and family. 
 
It surprises me that we can't get through a holiday without a major worldwide event occuring.  First it was Dubai's credit crisis on Thanksgiving, and now we've had a thwarted terrorist bombing attempt on an airline, in addition to Iranian riots escalating in the last 6 months to their worst level since the rigged Iranian elections.  Regarding the terrorist attack, we must note that US stocks held firmly and the Euro also held its ground as crude ticks higher.  Historically I would have expected stocks and the euro to fall in face of terrorism, so the bullish case cannot be ignored.  We must note the Sanctions on Iran since 1987, the recent Iran gasoline sanctions bill, and the fact that the vote should be by new years and all of this is in conjunction with riots.
 
1)  Buy Mar. Emini S&P at 1117.75, with a 1110.50 stop.  Exit 1134.  The latest rally from mid Dec. provides a 24% retracement level of 1117, and a 38% retracement level of 1111.50. The Holiday to Holiday rally (the low on Thanksgiving to todays high) provides a 24% retracement level of 1111.50, which should provide key support.  The upward trending channel bisects directly at 1111 at this point in time, and since the market is considerably higher afterhours, I would hope that the channel would bisect 1117.50 by tomorrow morning to provide a nice precise fill (in a perfect world).
 
2)  Buy Mar. Euro at the market (1.4350), with a 1.4264 stop.  Exit 1.4494.  The market has fallen a bit afterhours and we are currently hovering around the 200 hour moving average.  It's possible we could continue to tick lower prior to the open of the European markets but the 38% retracement is a proper area to be filled with respect to current fundamentals.  If the market can takeout the 1.4420 area, first are of resistance would be the 1.4465 area, but ultimately 1.45 is the target.
 
3)  Buy Feb Crude oil at the market (78.50), with a 77.50 stop.  Exit 82.23.  Technically speaking, the downward sloping resistance level is just above 79, and if the market can accelerate past todays high, the next 2 levels of resistance are 80.65, and 82.23.  The 82.50 region would be making a double top, but if the market can push through, then 83.12, 84.08, and 85.27 would be the next targets.  Fundamentally it seems as though these riots will not end as the Iranian people want an end to this 30 year regime.  The U.S. is finally imposing additional sanctions on any country that is in direct trade with Iran.  What does this mean?  The Swiss are the main exporters of Gasoline to Iran.  So essentially this new bill is a crackdown on the Swiss, where we must note the recent Credit Suisse $536 million fine over Iran sanctions.  With 40% of Iran's gasoline being imported with the possibility of all this ending by next week if the Swiss comply, is a recipe for disaster.
 
4)  Hold Feb Gold longs from 1180, with a 1195 stop.  Exit 1120.  If crude escalates, we will easily reach our target.
 
Best,

 
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist

*There is a risk of loss when trading futures.