Futures Trading Recommendations for Wed. June 30th

Hello All,

 

We broke support right after Consumer Confidence was reported far worse than expected, and there was no looking back afterwards.  At best we may get a neutral unemployment report on Friday, so overall there is nothing that would provide much support for the market the rest of the week.  As a rule of thumb, I typically expect trends to reverse after 3 day weekends, which we have coming up, so maybe the worst downside will be done by Friday.  The question is whether we will break psychological support at 1000 on the S&P.  Will the plunge protection team come out and play?  Treasury yields were setting record lows today and that is indication enough that current trends will continue to be pressed for the most part.  On the bright side the decline in the euro and crude was not as bad with respect to support levels, and the s&p cash did technically close back above the 1040 support level.  But trading over the next couple of days is not worth the risk given all the uncertainty.  We'll use the high vix to capture option premiums rather than pick a direction, and let the big boys hash it out until next week.

 

If you have yet to participate in our option writing program, there are some very appealing trades we will be ready to implement in the morning.  Give us a call to learn more.

Best,

Arman Vahdatinia

Futures & Options Strategist

1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25

www.ExpoFutures.com

 

*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futures Trading Recommendations for Tues. June 29th

Hello All,
 
We have Case Schiller and Consumer Confidence reporting tomorrow and given the current weakness I think the market will remain weak for the most part tomorrow.  Given the inherent weakness and the fact that we have our unemployment numbers due on Friday, I would suspect congestion on Wed/Thurs, which would be slightly favorable if we can squeeze out a new low overnight.  This pattern would correlate with crude and the euro.
 
1)  Hold Sept. Emini S&P futures shorts, with a 1068.50 stop.  Exit 1056.00, and reverse, using a 1043.00 protective stop.  Hold into at least Thursday.  We had cancelled our additional sell order for 1077 on Friday after missing by 5ticks overnight given the fact that she was unable to break support and we didn't necessarily need to add a 3rd position on a rally with G-20 over the weekend.
 
2)  SeptEuro currency futures should find support around 1.22, which would provide a buying opportunity for those with a strong stomache.  With unemployment at weeks end, I am in no hurry to jump aboard this market trading futures; or at the very least putting out a recommendation 10 hours in advance.
 
3)  Aug Crude oil futures have retraced the swing up with respect to Hurricane Alex veering offcourse enough to miss most offshore rigs.  Obvious support is the 77.50 level where the market quickly advanced on Friday, so I would probably expect the level to be broken just to take out stops.  This would also attract new sellers, but I wouldn't be too quick to sell this market either.  If anything you'd want to only trade this market from the long side, and consider pullbacks nice buying opportunities.  Will consider a buy just above $76 during the day session with respect to outside market conditions.  Call in to the office for exact pricing/timing.
 
Best,

 
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futures Trading Recommendations for Fri. June 25th

Hello All,
 
The Group of Twenty meet this weekend in Toronto to discuss the world's economic health and what actions are necessary to stabilize the global economy.  Needless to say, the protests have already begun and given the downward bias in stocks this week we may press the issue tomorrow or simply stabilize at current levels to end the week.  The trend
has been more than a friend as of late, so we'll continue as planned.
 
1)  Hold Sept. Emini S&P shorts from 1089.50, lower protective stop to 1086.50.  Add shorts at 1077 using the same stop.  Exit 1056.  I anticipate the bulk of trading to be done prior to lunch, so we may want to go flat if the market stagnates.
 
2)  Hold Sept. Euro longs from 1.2274, with a 1.2280 stop.  Exit 1.2389.  We bought in almost perfectly, but investors may not want to hold any long positions with G-20 this weekend and all the attention around the PIGS.  We'll peel off profits if we can reach our first target and look to re-establish a position next week.
 
3)  Aug Crude Oil - our entry was off target and the risk/reward isn't there given market correlations with the Euro and S&P.  We'll stand aside for tomorrow and observe.

Best,
 
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futures Trading Recommendations for Thurs. June 24th

Hello All,
 
Rates remained unchanged, and although we had a positive reaction the market then sold off as expected.  We should see continuation of the current patterns through Friday.
 
1)  Sell Sept.Emini S&P futures at the market (1089.5), and sell another at 1094.75 if it reaches, using a 1104 stop.  Minimum target is 1070, with a possibility of 1046 if we really break down.  New home sales dropped 33% in May to 300,000 since we no longer have the first time homebuyer tax credit.  The biggest percentage drop since 1963.  Folks, we are not out of the woods yet by all means.
 
2)  Sell Aug Crude futures 77.41, with a 78.20 stop.  Exit 73.50 into Sunday/Monday.  The DOE report stated a build of 2 million barrels whereas the API on Tuesday reported a build of 3.6million.  Although friendlier than the API, the news could not ignore the slowing economy.
 
3)  Buy Sept. Euro futures at 1.2274, with a 1.2197 stop.  Exit 1.2505.  The market held support right above 1.22 and put in a nice reversal.  I would expect one more leg up before the market gets pounced on.  I would expect the major reversal to the downside to come in my Sunday/Monday, but it may even take an extra week after July 4th weekend, which coincides with July option expiration.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futures Trading Recommendations for Tues. June 22nd

Hello All,
 
My original projections for Monday came in nearly perfectly and the reaction to China's surprise news was a bluff.  It seems as though the markets have put in major reversals for the most part, and if you have yet to get short I have new entries listed below.  With our Fed announcement due on Wed. it is possible that we may not get too much of an additional breakdown tomorrow, but regardless I think we'll want to get aboard this ride early.
 
1)  Sell Sept Emini S&P futures at the market (1111), with a 1123 stop.  Exit 1093.  Given the breakdown in the euro, gold, oil, and stocks I would suspect additional weakness tomorrow.  We should see a breakdown below 1100, but I doubt the market will close below it so we'll want to pull profits prior to the Fed announcement.  The market hit the 24% retracement level of the rally from early June, and the next 38% retracement level is at 1092.  This 1092 level also matches precisely with a 38% extension of todays fall, but it is possible that we may only reach 1097 as a 24% extension.
 
2)  Sell Sept. Eurocurrency futures at 1.2389, with a 1.2508 stop. Exit near 1.2000.  It seems as though the upward correction is over and we should see a continual decline of the euro through the rest of the year.  We'll use a big stop just in case we get a surprise on Wed.  First level of support is in the 1.22 region, once that goes look out below.  July options expire on July 9th and I would suspect to trade right around the 1.19 region to prevent option sellers from paying up much below or above that region.
 
3)  Buy Aug Crude futures at the market (77.90), with a 77.40 stop.  Exit 79.15.  Reverse at 79.15, and sell another contract at 79.50 if it reaches, using a 80.60 stop.  Aug. Crude oil signaled a break down, but has support at 77.60.  The July contract expires tomorrow so we may get some volatility, and we'll want to use that opportunity to add shorts.  The buy side of this trade is against the days trend, but we'll use it as a hedge against our short s&p play just to be on the safe side.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futures Trading Recommendations for Mon. June 21st

Hello All,
 
Big news over the weekend is China's currency policy change to make the yuan a free floating currency.  This should be positive news and a step in the right direction to help get the world economy back on the right track as China is a great exporting nation.  Technically this could have been the catalyst to reach my upward targets, but if it does turn out to be something more, then I will have to re-evaluate my projections.  The gap up on the S&P has reached my first extended target of 1127, but given the news we have a good chance of reaching 1136, which would be an ideal sale.  This should coincide with the Euro at 1.25, and although we have reached my 78.50 projection for July crude, we will be rolling over to the August contract, and should allow for 80.50.  I prefer to watch action overnight before initiating anything.  Give us a call in the morning for an update.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futures Trading Recommendations for Fri. June 18th

Hello All,
 
I believe we made the right decision to sit on the sidelines today as market correlations were off the mark.  Most markets are still completing toppy action and with stock option expiration tomorrow we should stay between 1100 and 1120 on the S&P.  The S&P practically reached our first target of 1118, and surprisingly crude failed to make a run at our 78.50 target while the Euro accelerated without any real support from outside markets.  We'll have to respect the move in the Euro and allow the possibility to reach up to 1.25 which would be an excellent selling opportunity.  We would also like to sellcrude in the 78.50 region, and the S&P in the 1118-1127 region.  Given the fact that it is the end of the week, and we have our FOMC announcement next week we would rather concentrate on capturing option premium instead of taking futures positions.  I hate being confronted with something unexpected, so a couple days off is 10x better than a couple days loss.  Scalpers feel free to use these resistance leves to squeeze off a couple points, but the easy money should be made off option premiums being bid up prior to FOMC.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futures Trading Recommendations for Thurs. June 17th

Hello All,
 
Some of my respective exit targets have come in, and some have yet to manifest.  But given crude option expiration tomorrow, and stock option ex on Friday we should be in store for some unpredictable volatility.  After the nice run we've had over the past couple of weeks, I won't press my luck too much as I feel the markets are almost ready to reverse.  Although it looks tempting to sell, it would be premature with possibilities of exceeding my expected targets based on shear short covering.
 
1)  Sept Emini S&P has upper targets of 1118, 1127, and 1136.  I would feel safe selling the top two resistance levels, but would rather wait for signals of a reversal before getting aboard.  As I always say, I'd rather be late to the party than the one paying for it.
 
2)  Sept. Euro has broken below the upward trending channel support which implies a possible breakdown, but it is still holding above the previous low.  It all really depends if crude will reach the upper target of 78.50 tomorrow, which will provide support for the Euro to possibly reach up to 1.24, but it seems doubtful at the moment.
 
3)  July Crude oil reached my 77.70 target and then some, but ultimately we will need to reach 78.50 to complete my cycle work.  We had a bearish inventory report, and ofcourse they ripped it in the opposite direction.  With option ex tomorrow, nothing should surprise us.  Better to sit back and enjoy the fireworks, if any. 
 
If indeed the markets fail to put in higher highs, we should be in for 2-3 days lower and then congestion into the FOMC announcement.  We have to ask ourselves at which level prior to the report will the direction be most confusing?
 
Best,
 
 
Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futures Trading Recommendations for Tues. June 15th

Hello All,
 
1)  Buy Sept. Emini S&P at the market (1086.25), and rebuy at 1077 if the market heads lower, using a 1068 protective stop.  Exit 1118.  We were able to exit our long position from Friday at 1101 for practically 30 pts profit.  Moody's downgraded Greek bonds once again, and there was a sell-off across the board.  However, what's so new about that?  That info should already be baked into the cake and the reaction was overdone.  Damage was not done technically, so we should still be inclined for higher prices and it may just take until Friday's option ex to reach our target.  The market has attempted to break above 1100 three times in the last couple of weeks, and typically if theres a 4th attempt it will indeed break.  We don't have any important economic data for tomorrow, but have enough reports on Wed to provide us with the catalyst we need.
 
2)  Buy Sept Euro currency futures at the market (1.2228), with a 1.2150 stop.  Exit targets of 1.2355, 1.2389, and 1.2505.  The Euro showed signs of weakness into the close, but we cannot ignore the overall rally, and I feel the market will probably chop between 1.2200 and 1.2500 going into our FOMC meeting next week.  The dollar index has support at 85.80, so theres another point underneath which would support my theory for higher foreign currencies.
 
3)  Buy Sept. British Pound futures at 1.4726, with a 1.4645 stop.  Exit 1.4978.  The BP has been a mess to trade over the last few sessions, but finally broke above resistance and should attract enough attention to reach targets of 1.4874, 1.4905, 1.4978, and 1.5025.  Another currency pointing higher, so I cannot ignore the charts.
 
4)  Buy July Crude oil futures at 74.80, with a 73.82 stop.  Exit 78.50.  Crude sold off dramatically after Moody's cut, but came back to life into the close.  Such volatility just washes out all the weak position holders and going into this week's inventory report I would expect another bullish reaction.  If the market retraces 50% of the fall from the May high/low, it would be at 78.50, which also coincides with a 38% extension of the recent rally from the 6/6 low.  We also have July options expiring on Thursday, so if we get a rally it would support my option ex theory for stocks as well.
 
Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
 
*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futures Trading Recommendations for Fri. June 11th

Hello All,

We had strength across the board except for the dollar and treasuries.  June currencies expire tomorrow and we should be trading Sept contracts for all quarterly futures.  Todays action should continue into the beginning of next week, and we'll try and get aboard on some retracements.

1)  Buy Sept.Emini S&P futures at 1072.50, with a 1060 stop.  Exit targets of 1087, then 1101.  The market didn't give us a chance to reverse overnight and we got stopped out with a small profit locked in.  The market is currently testing resistance from a downward trending channel from teh 4/26 high.  If the market doesn't retrace downwards and continues the trend up, you'll want to Buy on a stop at 1088.50, with a 1076 protective stop.

2)  Sell Sept. T-bond futures at the market (122-250), with a 123-18 stop.  Exit 120-060.  Bonds signaled a major sell signal and we should continue to push down for at least a week.  With economic data looking good going into the FOMC announcement in another 12 days, the verbage of rate hikes is just around the corner. 

3) We will stay away from the Euro with the June contract expiring.  Don't want to get caught in something for all the wrong reasons.

4)  Buy July Crude oil futures at 74.35, with a 73.40 stop.  Exit 78.56.  Crude has definitely come back to life, I can only hope to get in with the proper risk/reward given the possible volatility.  With Chinese, Japanese, and Australian economic data showing that the global recovery is strengthening it has pushed crude to the highest level in four weeks.  The simple fact that Chinese exports increased the most in the last 6 years is enough to light the fire under any raw material.

Best,

Arman Vahdatinia
Futures & Options Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com

*There is a risk of loss trading futures.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.