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Hello All,
The saying goes, when in doubt - stay out. The red flag has officially been raised now that we've dropped back below the 1300 marker on the S&P. Without any progress on our debt ceiling, investors took money off the table ahead of tomorrows unemployment claims and pending home sales data. The US dollar bounced off the May low as investors booked profits on bets against the greenback. Even though circumstances may not call for the money supply to tighten with higher interest rates, it seems inevitable at this juncture. Nothing over the past year has been 'normal' and this radical shift may temporarily put a halt in the global recovery, but will put us on a different track towards solvency in the long run. The Euro gave back yesterdays gains and echoes the issues we still have across the Atlantic. With a possible credit rating downgrade here in the states, I will continue to take the contrarian stand and buy dollars as the Greece bailout issues resurface. Crude inventories showed a build of 2.3 million barrels today which hinted at less demand near $100.
1) Sell Sept Emini S&P at 1306, with a 1322 stop. Exit 1225. If the bulls don't step in before the weekend, I would assume the previous top from April 2010 would be a place to ultimately test support.
2) Crude Oil - not sure what type of bounce we'll get, if any. But will probably look to get short again tomorrow.
3) Stand aside Euro. Waiting for 1.41 to break before pressing shorts.
Best,
Arman Vahdatinia
President, Chief Market Strategist
1-877-338-EXPO [3976] ext. 25
www.ExpoFutures.com
*There is a substantial risk of loss trading futures and options. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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